Mirage in-situ machining products are used for many different applications across a wide range of industry sector. That's why do our best to keep up to date with the latest industry trends and predictions. This not only helps us forecast demand for products, but also drives our product development, sales and marketing strategies.
So what does the future hold for the sectors that generate work for the on-site machinist? Take a look at some recent predictions we’ve found from various of sources below.
1. Demand for oil to grow, but prices to remain flat
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Global demand for oil in 2018 is set to grow by an additional 100,000 barrels per day. Taking the United States as just one example; crude oil production is expected to average a record breaking 10.3 million barrels per day.
The EIA expects that crude oil prices will decline from current levels to an average of $60/b during Q1 2018. Following this modest drop they anticipate that prices will remain relatively flat through the remainder of 2018 and during 2019.
2. Gas to see growth in demand, but extra capacity needed
Last October, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) published the latest edition of the World Energy Outlook, in which they report that despite demand for global energy to rise slower than previously, Global energy needs will expand by 30% between now and 2040. (Equivalent to adding another China and India to today’s global demand!).
Over the next 5 years, gas production will grow by 1.6%, which is faster than coal and oil. This will be driven by low prices, ample supply and the desire to reduce air pollution and other emissions.
3. Power Generation: Coal set to decline
Global power generation is undergoing a period of change, which will shape the market for decades to come. Coal looks to be in terminal decline and will be to be replaced by natural gas and renewable energies as they become more commercially viable.
4. Jobs boost as renewables edge towards the mainstream
Solar prices have dropped by around 62% since 2009 and offshore wind costs have also halved in recent years, reaching £57 per megawatt hour in 2017. As a result, governments are seeing record-low prices for solar and wind at power auctions, and subsidy-free solar and wind farms are now being developed.
This is good news for jobs in this sector as many wind turbines, each which have a lot of moving parts, are needed to generate a similar amount of power to a coal or gas plant. On top of manufacture and installation, considerable manpower is needed for on-going maintenance to keep the electricity running.
- Around 9.8 million people now work in the renewables sector worldwide.
- Wind turbine service technician and solar photovoltaic installer are the fastest-growing occupations in the US.
- £17.5bn that will be invested in the UK offshore wind sector could create thousands of new jobs.
5. Divided opinion on nuclear power
The outlook for nuclear power generation is mixed.
Nuclear power is falling out of favour in these countries;
- Germany. (Intends to shut all eight of its reactor by 2022).
- The United States
- Switzerland. (Plans to phase out its five reactors).
- France. Vowed to reduce the nuclear part of its energy mix from 75 to 50 percent by 2025, but then backed off over concerns it would prevent it from meeting its climate-change goals
However, these countries are expanding their capacity for nuclear power generation
- China. Plans to add 20 new reactors to its current fleet of 37.
- Russia. Building 7 new reactors.
- Building 6 new reactors.
- South Korea. Building 3 new reactors.
6. Construction sector to see global growth
The future of the global construction industry looks good with opportunities in residential, non-residential, and infrastructure. The global construction industry is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% from 2018 to 2023. The major drivers for the growth of this market are increasing housing starts and rising infrastructure due to increasing urbanization and growing population.
The APAC region is expected to remain the largest market during the forecast period mainly due to increasing urbanization, higher expenditure on infrastructural development, and affordable housing projects.
7. Petrochemicals: Operating at full capacity
The market for petrochemicals is expected to remain tight despite new capacity coming onstream, such as in the United States, where the largest number of new ethylene crackers in more than a generation are being commissioned.
Also in the United States, Hurricane Harvey caused more than half of the US ethylene capacity to temporarily go off line. Longer-lasting effects include construction delays of about six months for two new crackers, each with 1.5 million metric tons of annual capacity.
8. Ship Building: China continues to dominate
Commercial shipbuilding sectors are dominated by China, Japan, Korea, European Countries.
In its 2017 nine-month financials, Hapag-Lloyd (ETR:HLAG), the world’s fifth-largest ocean container company, noted that global container-shipping volume from 2018 through to 2021 is projected to increase between 4.8% and 5.1%.
Shipyards have been in transition since the financial crisis, which plunged demand for new buildings to unprecedented lows. A decade on, the yards are taking major steps to develop a modern vessel-construction model fit for the future.
Newbuilding statistics from IHS Markit show that China has the busiest orderbook, with 41% of newbuilding tonnage, and remains the largest shipbuilding nation in the world. The other two major players – South Korea and Japan – are locked in a battle for second place with market shares of 26.4% and 26.1% respectively.
9. Offshore Decommissioning set for 6.93% global growth
- The global offshore decommissioning market is expected to grow at 6.93% compound annual growth rate up to 2025.In 2016, the market was led by Europe, with a 70.1% share, followed by North America and Asia-Pacific with shares of 18.9% and 8.9%, respectively.
- £17Bn is forecast to be spent on decommissioning on the UKCS from 2017 through to 2025 with well plugging and abandonment being the largest category at 49% (£8.3Bn).
- Decommissioning is forecast to take place on 349 fields across the four regions of the North Sea, including six fields on the Danish Continental Shelf, 23 fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), 106 fields on the Dutch Continental Shelf and 214 fields on the UKCS.
- Across these regions, the infrastructure scheduled for decommissioning includes more than 200 platforms forecast for complete or partial removal, close to 2,500 wells expected to be plugged and abandoned and nearly 7,800 km of pipeline forecast to be decommissioned
Need equipment for an on-site machining project? Get in touch with your regional Mirage contact.
Information Sources: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/prices.php http://www.satprnews.com/2018/01/13/power-generation-top-five-trends-for-2018-and-beyond/ https://www.popsci.com/what-to-do-about-nuclear-energy https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180105005334/en/10.5-Trillion-Growth-Opportunities-Global-Construction-Industry http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/outlook-2018-shipping-on-course-for-recovery-analysts/ https://fairplay.ihs.com/commerce/article/4295546/outlook-2018-asian-shipyards-to-embrace-innovation-in-2018 http://www.osjonline.com/news/view,more-than-300-fields-in-north-sea-will-see-decommissioning-activity-by-2025_50385.htm